Covid-19: a study highlights the thousands of lives saved by confinements and vaccination

We thought that everything had been written, deciphered, criticized on the Covid-19 pandemic.We thought we now knew everything about the catastrophe averted, the measures judged by certain “liberticides”, the false beliefs and real health consequences. To be honest, the subject seemed exhausted, rinsed, abandoned between…

We thought that everything had been written, deciphered, criticized on the Covid-19 pandemic. We thought we now knew everything about the catastrophe averted, the measures judged by certain “liberticides”, the false beliefs and real health consequences. To put it bluntly, the subject seemed exhausted, rinsed away, abandoned in the hands of the ultimate anti-vaxxers who mix up the figures at will. All that remained was the not-so-distant memory of the silent streets, the queues at the vaccinodromes, the fear in our stomachs, the Prime Minister’s beard which was whitening before our eyes. And then a team of researchers from the University and University Hospital of Bordeaux, Inserm and Inria (1) comes to shake up our certainties. Like a clarification.

Confinements, curfews, closure of schools, borders, masks, teleworking, hydroalcoholic gel, barrier gestures punctuated our lives between January 2020 and October 2021. Have these measures, which deprived us of our freedoms, served to something, and to what extent? 53 million people received a first injection of anti-Covid vaccine in 2021. So what ? A team of public health researchers from the University of Bordeaux, CHU, Inserm, Inria, who joined forces with Canadian researchers from McGill University, used all public data available in France, by department, to measure the impact of these measures. “The idea is to observe the past situation, in order to learn lessons from it, and to prepare for possible new epidemics,” begins Rodolphe Thiébaut, head of the study, professor of public health at the University of Bordeaux. Our work takes into account the economic, psychological and societal costs of these measures. »

“The first confinement reduced the transmission of the virus by 84%. The 6 p.m. curfew proved more effective than the 8 p.m. curfew”

159,000 deaths avoided

In addition numerical data collected from Santé Publique France, the researchers recovered all the weather information from the time. “To be more precise, comments Rodophe Thiébaut, because the hypothesis of the spread of the virus in the first months took into account the weather conditions. In summer, people were considered to open the windows, ventilate, and change their behavior. So, from these historical data gathered, we estimated the impact, knowing that before us, other studies had been published by the WHO, it was interesting to compare our results, which are consistent. » And they go even further. Thus, the Bordeaux study shows that the most restrictive measures, namely the first confinement, followed by the curfew, had a significant effect on reducing transmission of the virus. “The first confinement allowed a reduction in transmission of 84%,” explains the professor. The 6 p.m. curfew proved more effective than the 8 p.m. curfew, 68% less for the first, compared to 48% for the second. As for closing schools, they reduced transmission by 15%. »

Still in this same study, the researchers analyzed different scenarios, including the same Covid pandemic, without a vaccine, until October 2021. The prediction sends shivers down your spine: at least 159,000 additional deaths in the country, and 1, 48 million more cases of hospitalizations in France.

“If France had confined a week earlier, 20,000 deaths would have been avoided”

In truth, the epidemic has caused 116,000 deaths in France, and led to 460,000 hospitalizations, according to INSEE figures. “We managed to obtain a vaccine in one year, it was already exceptional,” continues Rodolphe Thiébaut. But we estimated a similar situation, with a vaccine after a hundred days, which is the objective of the International Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). In this case, a third of deaths and three-quarters of hospitalizations would have been avoided. Another of our simulations showed that if France had confined a week earlier, 20,000 deaths would have been avoided. »

Rapid decisions in the event of an epidemic

The analysis of the estimates produced by the team of researchers from Bordeaux is rich in lessons. Beyond ideologies, it is clear that the restrictive measures, poorly received, whose health and economic consequences are not negligible, were the “least worst” decisions. Vaccination remains an effective asset. “This result emphasizes the importance of rapid deployment of vaccines,” said Professor Thiébaut. This study demonstrates that in the event of a new pandemic, it will be necessary to implement an optimal vaccine research and development strategy, and to make rapid decisions, to save as many human lives as possible. »And to recall that without vaccines, in addition to the 159,000 deaths, the increase in the number of hospitalizations would have generated such chaos in the health system that other non-Covid deaths would have been to be deplored.

(1) National Institute for Research in Digital Sciences and Technologies.