Organized in a hurry, the Republican Front blocked the National Rally and its allies, at the end of the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday July 7. Against all expectations, the New Popular Front came out on top by a small margin, with a range of between 177 and 192 deputies in the new chamber, according to figures relayed by the French press.
Turnout for the second round was estimated at 67.1%, a level slightly higher than that of the first round and not seen since 1997.
For the left-wing coalition formed in the aftermath of the dissolution, this is a clear step forward compared to the contingent of 150 deputies sent to the National Assembly by Nupes after the 2022 legislative elections.
Following this election, the internal balances within the left bloc were modified. La France insoumise (LFI), which formed a group of 75 deputies in the outgoing Assembly, obtained 73 to 80 seats. The Socialist Party went from a group of 31 elected representatives to a range of between 60 and 64 seats.
The Ecologists will have 33 to 36 seats, compared to 21 until now. Finally, the French Communist Party would send 11 to 12 elected representatives to the Palais-Bourbon. Excluding the NFP, 14 diverse left-wing candidates are elected in the second round, according to the estimate of Ipsos-Talan.
Qualified in 441 constituencies for the second round, the National Rally and its allies seemed able to seize a majority in the National Assembly for the first time in the Fifth Republic. But after the many withdrawals that occurred between the two rounds, the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella lost its bet. It obtained, according to estimates, between 138 and 145 elected representatives at the end of the second round. However, it improved its score compared to 2022, when it had sent 89 deputies to the Assembly.
The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella alone will win 124 to 128 seats. Allied with the extreme right, the contested president of the Republicans, Eric Ciotti, and his supporters will have 14 to 17 deputies.
The question of the future government remains unresolved.
Behind the left-wing coalition, but ahead of the RN and its allies, the presidential bloc united under the banner Ensemble lost the relative majority it held from 2022 to 2024. The various centrist parties, however, limited their decline in the Assembly, with between 152 and 158 elected representatives at the end of these early legislative elections.
While various polls gave him a contingent of deputies closer to the 100 mark, the numerous withdrawals that occurred between the two rounds to prevent the National Rally from coming to power benefited Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons.
Each of the components of the Ensemble coalition sees its numbers reduced. Renaissance, the presidential party, will have only 95 to 98 seats in the future Assembly, compared to 169 before the dissolution.
The MoDem, François Bayrou’s party, which had a group of 50 parliamentarians, will send between 32 and 34 deputies to the Assembly. Finally, Horizons, Edouard Philippe’s party, marks a slight withdrawal, with 25 to 26 elected representatives, against 31 deputies previously.
The Republicans (including the various right-wing deputies) send between 63 and 67 elected representatives to the chamber, whereas they had 61 deputies in their group before the dissolution. This status quo is somewhat surprising, after the eventful campaign that saw Eric Ciotti ally himself with the RN.
With this result, the question of the future government remains an unknown. Will the left claim the formation of a government despite the absence of a clear majority? Will the presidential bloc negotiate with certain forces of the New Popular Front to form a coalition of the left and the center? Is the hypothesis of a technical government that would deal with current affairs for several months conceivable? Part of the answers also lies in the hands of Emmanuel Macron, since the Constitution entrusts the President of the Republic with the power to appoint the Prime Minister.
With Franceinfo
