OPINION | Can this transition succeed?

On Monday, March 11, following a meeting between Haitian political actors and the international community regarding the Haitian crisis, CARICOM announced an agreement between parties involved in the crisis to establish a presidential council in Haiti. This announcement was preceded by the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who ruled Haiti for more than two years without managing to restore democratic institutions through elections. His resignation will take effect with the establishment of a new government.

For some observers, Prime Minister Henry’s failure to restore security and hold elections to transfer power to an elected government is attributed to his incompetence and bad faith. I do not want to judge the relevance of their criticisms. However, it is obvious that the democratic crisis in Haiti contains elements that even the presidential council, composed of 7 members with voting rights and two (2) observers, could not resolve overnight.

Clearly, this transition represents a major political challenge due to the diversity of actors involved and the scale of the outstanding issues. Among these are national security, the economic and food crisis, the constitutional question, the political and economic orientations to adopt for the years to come, as well as the organization of elections.

This is why the adoption of a transitional pact, which would open the way to an effective political transition, with the ultimate objective of establishing and consolidating a democratic regime, seems to me to be an avenue worth exploring.

Infancy

Last March 29 reminded us that in 1987, we undertook the process of democratization which unfortunately never came to fruition. This political trajectory is marked by recurring crises which have undermined the foundations of this emerging democracy. Today neither political scientists nor political observers can truly qualify our political regime. Haitian democracy remains stuck between the gestation stage and the maturation stage. Meanwhile, the population is plunged into deep poverty. In 2024, more than 5 million people will be food insecure in Haiti, and among them, 2 million risk succumbing to famine if concrete measures are not taken.

The first and fundamental mission of a political leader aspiring to govern a city is to organize it in such a way as to promote the life and development of his fellow citizens. As hope fades in Haiti today, it is undeniable that the responsibility falls collectively on our nation’s political and economic elites. It becomes imperative to recognize this responsibility in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, especially at a time when a new generation is ready to take over. We need to change our usual behaviors to envision different outcomes. Thus, the establishment of a pact in favor of the democratic transition appears to be a necessity.

The transition pact

For political science specialists, different modes of transition are identified depending on the actors leading the transition and how decisions are made. A mode of transition refers to the process by which interactions between the main political forces result in the adoption of certain institutional and political arrangements framing the transition period. In examining the transition process in Haiti since its beginnings in 1987, which has admittedly been marked by incessant conflict, it might be wise to consider adopting a pact-based transition model.

Transition by pact is defined as a mode of transition orchestrated by mutual agreement between the parties concerned. It is generally considered the most conducive mode for the consolidation of democracy, according to researchers such as Guillermo O’donnell and Philippe Schmitter. This transitional pact can take an implicit or explicit form between a set of political actors seeking to define or redefine the rules of the political game in order to preserve their respective interests and facilitate the transition process. This inclusive approach can guarantee the success of the transition by establishing its objectives and can contribute to the stabilization of democracy by promoting fair elections, alternation of power and adequate institutional stability.

With the establishment of this presidential council composed of members representing the main political forces of the country, an opportunity opens up for a consensual transition through such a pact. However, no one can claim that this transitional presidential council is the miracle solution to the profound challenges that mark two centuries of history in this country.

Nevertheless, the actors involved can agree to efforts to pave the way for political and institutional stability by renouncing maneuvers aimed at discrediting the next elections. They should also commit to respecting the verdict of the ballot boxes in future elections. These elements seem essential to me, because the current political instability stems in part from poorly orchestrated and contested elections from the start, without forgetting the weakness or absence of fundamental institutions of democracy which should be strengthened or established.

I therefore call on political, economic and civil society actors in Haiti to choose this path or to do everything in their power to prevent the country from sinking into barbarism and desolation.

Joshua Senate

Political scientist, MA

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