Joe Biden’s dismal performance against Donald Trump on Thursday fueled speculation that the 81-year-old Democratic president, who is seeking re-election in November, could throw in the towel.
This scenario, currently very unlikely, would plunge the United States into a period of great uncertainty.
Explanations.
For what?
Joe Biden, the oldest sitting US president, missed a crucial opportunity to reassure millions of voters of his vitality and health in the first debate of the campaign.
Joe Biden, during a campaign rally, in North Carolina, June 28, 2024 / Mandel NGAN / AFP
On stage, the Democratic leader often appeared confused, mincing his words and getting confused.
Calls to withdraw from anonymous Democrats spread through the press as soon as the show ended.
Joe Biden regularly repeats that he is the best qualified candidate, despite polls which show that his age puts off voters.
At a rally Friday in North Carolina, he reiterated that he planned “win” the November election.
“I don’t debate as well as I used to”he admitted, but “I know how to do this job”.
Comment?
If Joe Biden were to throw in the towel, however, the process to replace him would be a bit technical.
The president has already been nominated as the Democratic presidential nominee in a series of primaries held from January to June, and is therefore expected to be sworn in at the party’s convention in Chicago.
If Joe Biden were to drop out of the race before this big gathering, scheduled for mid-August, the final word would go to the party delegates, 3,900 people with very diverse backgrounds, most of whom are completely unknown to the general public.
La ville de Chicago, le 30 mai 2024 / SCOTT OLSON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
This would then be “the kind of convention where anything goes”with each camp trying to push for its candidate, predicts Brookings Institute researcher Elaine Kamarck in a recent note.
A roughly comparable scenario presented itself to Democrats on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson publicly announced that he would not seek a second term, in the midst of the Vietnam War.
What if Joe Biden were to drop out between the convention and the election? That’s the “national committee” of the party which, in an extraordinary session, would nominate the candidate.
Who?
Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris during a campaign rally in Manassas, Virginia, United States, January 23, 2024 / SAUL LOEB / AFP/Archives
Joe Biden has already nominated Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, but there is no rule that says the running mate automatically replaces the incumbent candidate.
Sent to put out the fire after the Democratic president’s poor performance, the 50-year-old conceded that Joe Biden had been “slow to start” but that he had “finished strong”.
At no time did she mention the possibility of replacing him.
Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African-American to serve as vice president, could also face competition from other members of the party’s young guard.
Like California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is on the rise among Democrats.
The latter, however, considered that this type of « conversations » didn’t do “not good for our democracy”.
The names of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are also being bandied about.
