When are you most likely to die? Although we cannot answer this disastrous question with certainty, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) has recorded the deaths occurring in France and compiled the data on them. This allowed them to identify the months and days with the greatest number of deaths based on periods of life.
Published in issue 337 of INSEE focus, soberly named “What day do people die the most in France?several elements of answers are presented this October 30. INSEE first takes stock of the year 2023, noting a drop in the number of deaths over this period. In total, “639,300 people died in France, or 35,900 fewer people than in 2022, a year of high mortality”notes INSEE.
The year 2022 was particularly deadly, marked by five waves of Covid-19two episodes flu in April and December as well as intense heat during the summer season. The year 2023 was more lenient, with a drop in the number of deaths linked to Covid-19, but also a drop in mortality during the summer season compared to 2022. In addition, there was no peak flu epidemic in 2023.
January 3 is the deadliest day of the year, according to INSEE
Once this picture is drawn up, what is the deadliest day of the year? According to INSEE data, “over the last twenty years, from 2004 to 2023, January 3 was the deadliest day”. According to INSEE, for people at the end of their lives, this can be explained by “the desire to spend the holidays with loved ones and to celebrate the New Year. In addition, this period corresponds to the resumption of surgical operations.
Conversely, INSEE notes that the August 15 is the least deadly day of the yearwith an average of 1,410 deaths, i.e. one drop of 12% in relation to the period. INSEE notes that generally, “deaths are less frequent on public holidays”. This could be explained by a drop in interventions scheduled for that day as well as an increase in visits for sick people.
The risk of dying on your birthday is higher than on other days
On an individual basis, INSEE notes that “the risk of dying is higher on your birthday, especially for young people”. As the authors point out, between 1994 and 2023, on average, the risk of dying on that day is 6%. For the youngest (2 to 17 years old), the risk increases by 15% and for the categories 18 to 29 years old and 20 to 39 years old, it increases by 21%. For those aged 40 to 49, the risk is 13% higher. All age groups are therefore not affected in the same way.
A phenomenon called “birthday syndrome” or “birthday effect” and observed in different countries. In Switzerland, there is an increase in road accidents, cardiovascular accidents and also falls. In Japan, the number of suicides increases on birthdays. Another explanation could be put forward, that of the desire to reach the anniversary date.
Mortality is not the same depending on the days of the week
After compiling the data for the year 2023, the authors found that Tuesday is the day with the most deaths (1,650 on average), i.e. an excess mortality of 1%. The least deadly days are Sundays (with 1,550 on average) and Saturday (with 1,580 on average). Regarding children under one year old, “deaths drop very sharply on Sunday and increase on Friday”.
How to explain this difference between days? According to INSEE, the drop in the number of scheduled operations as well as the increase in hospital visits for sick people may be an avenue. Additionally, deaths at home are less frequent on weekends but increase on Mondays.
Here again, not all age groups are affected in the same way. Among people aged between 1 and 17 years, mortality is higher on weekends, particularly due to accidental mortality. “Among 18-29 year olds, deaths on the road or in a public place increase significantly on Saturday and Sunday, by +32% and 34% respectively”.
Sources :
- Insee focus -number 337 – “Which day do people die the most in France?” – 10/30/2024
